Stock Market Today: Oil Tops $90, Treasury Yields Jump as Fed Hike Bets Rise - August 31, 2026

Admin User·August 31, 2026·4 min read

$AMZN$CVX$EIX$GME$PCG$XOM

BullsMeet Market Close — August 31, 2026

August ended with a reminder that macro can take control of the market very quickly.

Oil climbed back above $90 per barrel, Treasury yields moved higher and markets increased their expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike.

Here are the 10 stories that actually mattered today.

1. Oil Above $90 Is the Biggest Market Story Again

Brent crude jumped 2.7% to $90.49 per barrel after renewed military action between the United States and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz.

The move immediately revived concerns about another energy-driven inflation shock.

Oil ↑ → inflation ↑ → Fed hike odds ↑ → Treasury yields ↑ → equity valuations ↓

The Strait of Hormuz remains particularly important because roughly 20% of global oil shipments normally pass through the waterway.

2. Stocks Ended August on a Weak Note

S&P 500: -0.3%
Dow Jones: -0.7%
Nasdaq: -0.1%
Russell 2000: -0.5%

The decline was broad, with nearly every S&P 500 sector finishing lower. Energy stocks were the notable exception as crude prices surged.

Despite Monday's weakness, all four major U.S. indexes finished August with gains.

3. The 10-Year Treasury Yield Reached Roughly 4.75%

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.75%–4.76% as investors reacted to higher oil prices and increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve expectations.

Higher long-term yields can become a significant valuation headwind for high-growth technology stocks because future earnings are discounted at a higher rate.

4. September Fed-Hike Odds Climbed Above 60%

Before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, futures markets were pricing roughly a 35% probability of a September rate hike.

By Monday, market pricing had moved toward approximately 64%–65%.

That represents a major shift in expectations in only one trading session.

5. $EIX and $PCG Collapse on California Wildfire Legislation

Edison International fell 23.1% while PG&E dropped 20.1% after California lawmakers advanced wildfire legislation that failed to provide several liability protections utility investors had expected.

The selloff reflected concerns that California utilities remain exposed to potentially very large wildfire-related liabilities.

6. $AMZN Falls After FTC and 22 States File Lawsuit

The Federal Trade Commission and 22 U.S. states sued Amazon over allegations that the company manipulated advertising auction prices and secretly increased costs for advertisers.

Regulators allege the practices resulted in approximately $20 billion in improper charges. Amazon denies the allegations.

The case is particularly important because Amazon's advertising operation has become one of its most important high-margin businesses.

7. Energy Was the Market's Main Safe Haven

Exxon Mobil gained approximately 2.7% and Chevron rose around 2.1% as crude prices surged. Other energy companies including Halliburton and Valero also advanced.

The market dynamic is complicated: rising oil can boost energy-company profits while simultaneously creating higher inflation and interest-rate pressure for the broader market.

8. $GME Gets a Dilution-Relief Catalyst

GameStop amended a previously announced $1.4 billion debt exchange so that roughly 27% will be settled with cash rather than additional shares.

That reduces potential shareholder dilution.

However, GameStop also expects quarterly net sales of approximately $780 million to $800 million, compared with $972.2 million a year earlier, partly due to store closures and the sale of its operations in France.

9. August Was Still a Positive Month for Stocks

Monday's decline should be viewed in the context of a positive month for U.S. equities. All four major indexes finished August higher, while the Dow recorded its fifth consecutive monthly gain.

Year-to-date through August 31:

S&P 500: +12.3%
Nasdaq: +13.5%
Dow: +10.7%
Russell 2000: +19.1%

10. September Begins With an Important Jobs-Data Week

Tuesday brings the ISM Manufacturing Index and the latest JOLTS job-openings report.

Those releases begin a week dominated by labor-market data, culminating with Friday's August employment report.

Economists currently expect approximately 58,000 jobs to have been added in August, following July's unexpected 23,000 decline.

The numbers could materially change expectations for whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in September.

Today in 20 Seconds

S&P 500: -0.3%
Dow: -0.7%
Nasdaq: -0.1%
Russell 2000: -0.5%
Brent crude: +2.7% to $90.49
10-year Treasury yield: roughly 4.75%
September Fed-hike odds: above 60%
$EIX: -23.1%
$PCG: -20.1%
$XOM: +2.7%
$CVX: +2.1%
$AMZN pressured by a new FTC and state lawsuit

3 Things to Watch Tomorrow

ISM Manufacturing
Strong economic activity combined with persistent inflation could strengthen the case for another Federal Reserve rate increase.
JOLTS Job Openings
The report begins a crucial week for labor-market data and could provide an early clue about whether employment conditions are weakening.
Oil and Treasury Yields
If Brent crude continues climbing above $90 while the 10-year Treasury pushes beyond roughly 4.75%, higher-growth equities could face additional valuation pressure.

Oil is back above $90. Yields are near 4.75%. Rate-hike odds are above 60%.

September is beginning with a very different market setup than August ended with.